" Valuation is part science and part art" is a quote that is often espoused in many different iterations. Essentially, it’s about finding a relative value or a method used from a related asset. Because there is no perfect tool, it is often a matter of applying several methods to provide clarity. So how does one decide what a bitcoin is worth today and more importantly what it will be worth in the future. It appears that there are two aspects of a crypto currency that appeal to people worldwide along with investors. First, cryptos are a decentralized mechanism that acts similar to the cash economy. The second feature is that many people feel digital currencies provide many of the qualities of gold as a storage currency and would act as a long-term hedge.
One of the valuation methods that has been applied is Metcalfe's law, which was originally used for telecommunications companies and has also been used to value Facebook, Google and Amazon pre-revenue. The perceived value is derived from user growth which we know is exponential. Thomas Lee from FundStrat has developed a model from this theorem that cites the square of number of users multiplied by the average transaction which he believes explains 94% of Bitcoins previous movements.
Another way to look at crypto currencies is to understand its role as a storage currency and as a transaction protocol, free of sovereign control in a decentralized model. Bitcoin has a total of @ 17mm mined tokens from a theoretical total of 21mm, not accounting for forks like bitcoin cash and gold, which arguably has a separate function. There are credible reports that 4mm tokens have been lost forever which would skew the supply/demand dynamics further. Could bitcoin become a proxy to the gold market which has a 7.5 trillion dollar value? If this digital currency accounts for a portion of the gold market, lets just say 10%, the increased market cap for bitcoin could conservatively push its value 7x higher.