I LOST 30,000$ OF BITCOIN- How many articles do you see of someone losing their bitcoins or of making millions in ICO's? In fact bitcoin has become the number one search on google supplanting the kardashians (if i misspelled it's because i don't want to google them). The TV show Big Bang Theory recently aired an episode where the characters mined bitcoin early days and are now millionaires only to discover they lost their bitcoin. This got me thinking naturally about bubbles and the predictable cycle in which they move.
Turning on one's phone can be seamless as your device makes phone calls, receives email, plays music and surfs the web. This technology provides a powerful tool as we go about our lives without thinking what goes into to this device. In fact the phone, like the internet, is many technologies coming together built on years of work and advances. These technologies go through cycles and the Gartman Hype cycle I believe is an excellent way of looking at the stages of theses advances.
So where are we in this cycle for blockchain and cryptos? Lets start with digital currencies because the innovation of bitcoin is backed by the introduction of blockchain technology. I believe there is a viable argument that the Hype cycle does not fully apply to to Crypto currencies even though it's origin is technology based. Bitcoin's, in particular, adoption will be propelled by the interest for an anti-fiat currency and storage currency that can also be a substitute for gold. And while the hype has been dramatic as realized by surging prices in a short period of time, this is very understandable in today's world where information spreads at the speed of light. This is not to say we are not looking at some volatile times in bitcoin and alts and the chart above does not apply. The question remains what coins survive, how high that bitcoin bubble goes and post correction where does it level off as digital currencies become commonplace for commerce.
Blockchain on the other hand is a pure tech play that will be instrumental across many business as smart contracts become the norm. If we look to apply the Gartman Hype cycle to blockchain across many industries we are in the R&D stage to startup part of the curve. However across finance and with the backing of large banks the cycle has advanced to the second stage of the cycle. Behemoths like IBM have set up a "blockchain solution division" as more companies have started to be proactive in the belief of the inefficiencies that will be eliminated.
Where ever we are in this cycle can certainly be debated, but one thing is certain, It's happening and it's happening fast.